Abstract: This report presents our baseline forecasts for China’s economic growth, inflation, and current account balance in 2015. Our main conclusion is that China’s economic outlook will be increasingly featured by the “new norm”: GDP growth may slow modestly, but employment and inflation outlook should remain stable, and further progress will be made in re-balancing the economy. Our baseline forecasts include: real GDP growth will decelerate slightly to 7.1% in 2015, reflecting partly the slowdown in real estate investment; CPI inflation will be 2.2% in 2015; merchandise export growth will accelerate to 6.9% in 2015; and the current account balance as % of GDP will amount to 2.4% in 2015. Although GDP growth may decelerate, labor market conditions will unlikely be a major concern. Risks to our forecasts include geopolitical events as well as uncertainties associated with global commodity prices, the pace of US rate hike, and China’s real estate market outlook.
Full report :Constructing Housing Price Indices Using the Hedonic Approach.pdf
